peak in 2007Q3, fell slightly in 2007Q4 and 2008Q1, rose

peak in 2007Q3, fell slightly in 2007Q4 and 2008Q1, rose slightly in 2008Q2 to a level below its peak in 2007Q3, and fell again in 2008Q3. Thus, the currently available estimates of quarterly aggregate real domestic production do not speak clearly about the date of a peak in activity.
Other series considered by the committee including real personal income less transfer payments, real manufacturing and wholesale-retail trade sales, industrial production, and employment estimates based on the household survey all reached peaks between November 2007 and June 2008.
The measure that seems to have clinched December in particular as the start date was payroll employment, which peaked that month and has declined in every month since.
So there you have it. It s no longer a recession-like episode. It s the real thing.
Update: Business cycle dater Jeffrey Frankel of Harvard offers his explanation:
Why did we pick December 2007 as the start of the recession? As is the case surprisingly often, different economic indicators give very different answers to the date of the peak.
Of the monthly indicators to which the BCDC gives primary attention, the most Alldata V10.52 new 2013 important is jobs, more specifically Payroll Employment (from the Labor Departments Bureau of Labor Statistics). It peaked in V-Checker V601 December 2007, and has been declining ever since. My personal favorite indicator is Total Hours Worked (which is closely related, because it is number of people employed times the average number of hours per worker). Hours Worked also peaked in December




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